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Iran’s Aluminum Unwrought Market Outlook Report

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Aluminum smelters (unwrought producers) fall into two categories: primary and secondary smelters. Molten aluminum cast as unwrought products can be produced either through alumina electrolysis in primary smelters or through remelting scrap and pure ingots in secondary smelters. Primary smelting is a cost-intensive process; thus, such plants are usually large-scale producers that can be economical with capacities above 100,000 tonnes. But remelting aluminum in secondary smelters requires much lower costs, making small-scale capacities economical.

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Product Description

While aluminum ingots are produced through single-batch casting of molten aluminum in 1,000lb or 50lb molds, slab and billets are produced through direct chill casting. But in Iran, in addition to direct chill casting, billets are also produced using single-batch casting, which are usually of much lower quality compared to billets using the direct chill casting method. Slabs, which are hot rolled into flat products, are used only by an integrated plant that also produces them. These products are used in downstream plants and semis producers. With the exclusion of billets and slabs, which can be converted into extrusions and flat products without being melted, ingots have to be melted.

With a GDP of $415 billion in 2019, Iran was the third largest economy in the region that year. While the country’s economy was steadily growing after the drop in 2012 due to the sanctions, it dipped once again in 2019 thanks to the return of the sanctions. Although the production of aluminum has a longer history in Iran compared to other countries in the region, it currently stands as the sixth largest producer on a regional scale. Nonetheless, as new aluminum smelters are commissioned in the country, it will definitely advance to the fifth place.

Market drivers of unwrought aluminum

The high electrical and thermal conductivity of aluminum combined with its price advantage over copper have turned it into a major substitution threat for the red metal. Aluminum is becoming even more attractive as copper prices continue to rise and the price spread with copper widens. Currently, conductors and radiators are two of the most important cases of copper consumption that have been replaced by aluminum. Meanwhile, a major portion of Iran’s demand for ingots is met through imports. The spike in exchange rates over the recent years has weighed heavily on import volumes, creating an opportunity for domestic producers to ramp operating rates.

Since aluminum and aluminum products are priced based the US dollar, higher exchange rates will drive the prices of unwrought aluminum, leading to reduced purchase attractiveness. This is especially true considering that price is one of the most important factors affecting the market in Iran. The IMF has forecast that aluminum prices will more than double over the next 5 years. Due to high interest rates and inflation rates combined with international sanctions, Iran’s economy is now facing a stagflation. As a result, domestic demand has weakened. Considering the country’s diplomatic problems on nuclear agreements, the economy is expected to continue contracting.

Overview of Iran’s unwrought aluminum market

Generally, the output of unwrought aluminum from both primary and secondary smelters has increased over the years. Unlike primary producers around the world, Iranian producers have focused on non-alloy products, putting the onus on secondary smelters to supply unwrought alloys. Thus, even though demand has weakened, secondary smelters’ output has grown.

Primary smelters in Iran have always allocated a large share of their output to exports. Thus, the trade balance for primary unwrought aluminum is positive, while that of secondary unwrought aluminum is negative. Yet when the rial depreciates due to international sanctions, the negative trade balance of secondary smelters’ output narrows down; at the same time, as exports become more attractive and domestic demand weakens, the trade balance of primary unwrought aluminum widens upwards. The UAE and Iraq are two major sources of unwrought imports into Iran, but a large number of other countries also contribute. Turkey, the largest consumer of aluminum ingots and unwrought products, has always been the main receiver of Iranian exports.

Breakdown of Iran’s unwrought aluminum market

Domestic demand for unwrought aluminum (for both primary and secondary products, separately) in the forecast timeframe as well as the previous period has been broken down using three factors. The first factor breaks down the market into three categories based on alloy material: commercially pure aluminum, heat-treatable alloys, and non-heat-treatable alloys. Past and future trends for each type of material have been analyzed. Commercially pure aluminum holds the largest share of the market for primary unwrought aluminum; in the secondary market, heat-treatable alloys take the largest share. In the second breakdown, products are distinguished based on product type: ingots, billets, and slabs. A major portion of primary unwrought products are ingots, while billets are the most common form of secondary unwrought. Finally, using the third factor, unwrought aluminum is categorized based on consumption. Secondary smelters are the largest consumers of primary unwrought aluminum, while extrusion plants are the largest consumers of secondary unwrought aluminum.

Key players in Iran’s unwrought aluminum market:

  • Iralco
  • Almahdi Aluminium Co. (Hormozan)
  • South Aluminum Corporation (SALCO)
  • Iran Alumina
  • Faragostar Alton Co
  • Mahed Aluminium Co.
  • Yekta Aluminium Pars Co.
  • Ravan Godaz Pardis
  • Golpayegan Fanavari Zob Co.
  • Fanavari Amitis Aluminium Golpayegan
  • Negin Aluminium Industry Golpayegan

Additional Information

Industry

Aluminium Casts
Region

Iran
Report Type

Industry Report

Specifications

Report Attribute Details
The base year for estimation 2021
Historical data 2011-2020
Forecast period 2021-2026
Quantitative units Value in USD and Volume in Tonne
Report coverage Market Overview, Dynamics, Market Outlook, Risks to Forecast, Consumer Market, Industry Overview, Market Landscape, Competitive Landscape, Market Attractiveness, External Macro Environment Analysis
Segments covered Source, Composition, Type, Application
Pricing and purchase options Please explore our purchase options to meet your exact research needs.

Reasons to Buy

  • Recognize the geographical distribution of import demand
  • Identify the current and future key players of the trading market
  • Achieve a better insight on potential target markets
  • Understand the behavior of major suppliers/customers either globally or regionally
  • Identify competitors as a feed for market analysis

Table of Content

1- Executive summary

2- Introduction

2-1- Objective

2-2- Market under study

2-3- Product

2-3-1- Product specifications

2-3-2- Consumption structure

2-3-2-1- Applications

2-4- Physical properties

2-5- Subjects discussed

2-6- Geographical scope under study

2-7- Study timeframe

2-8- Study currency

2-9- Potential audience

3- Market dynamics

3-1- Market drivers

3-2- Restraints

3-3- Opportunities

3-4- Challenges

4- Market overview

4-1- Market size

4-2- Industry capacities

4-2-1- Existing capacities

4-2-1-1- Capacity distribution

4-2-1-2- Geographical distribution of capacities

4-2-2- Future capacities

4-3- Output

4-3-1- Output trends

4-3-2- Operating rates

4-4- Consumption

4-4-1- Consumption trend

4-4-2- Consumption Share of domestic product

4-5- Trade

4-5-1- Exports

4-5-2- Imports

4-5-3- Trade balance

4-5-4- Market balance

4-6- Market breakdown by product type

4-7- Market breakdown by product type

4-8- Market breakdown by application

4-9- Inventory

4-9-1- Producers inventory

4-9-2- Consumers inventory

4-9-3- Traders inventory

5- Market outlook

5-1- Market factors

5-1-1- Raw materials

5-1-2- Costs and prices

5-1-3- Competition

5-1-4- The government

5-1-5- Other factors

5-2- Future scenarios

5-3- Risks to forecast

6- Consumer markets

6-1- End-user markets

6-1-1- Building construction

6-1-2- Infrastructure construction

6-1-3- Transportation manufacturing

6-1-4- Industrial equipment manufacturing

6-1-5- Durable goods manufacturing

6-1-6- Consumable goods manufacturing

6-2- Direct consumer markets

6-2-1- Major Direct consumers

6-2-1-1- Existing capacities

6-2-1-2- Drivers

7- Export potentials

7-1- Destinations

7-1-1- Trade and insurance costs

7-1-2- Import market suppliers

7-1-3- Producers potential share

8- Industry overview

8-1- Raw materials

8-1-1- The supply volume of raw materials

8-1-2- Supply channels of raw materials

8-1-3- Raw materials procurement costs

8-2- Cost structure of producers

8-3- Production cost curve

8-4- Industry value added

8-5- Generated new scrap

8-6- Technology

9- Market landscape

9-1- Domestic sales markets

9-1-1- Pricing in the domestic market

9-1-2- Potential domestic demand

9-1-3- Trade agreements for imports

9-1-4- Foreign suppliers

9-2- Foreign sales market

9-2-1- Prices

9-2-2- Potential markets overview

9-2-3- Trade agreements for exports

9-2-4- Foreign customers

10- Competitive landscape

10-1- Producers

10-1-1-1- Company profile

10-1-1-2- Revenue structure

10-1-1-3- Gross profit margins

10-1-1-4- Capacity, output and sales

10-2- Consumers

10-2-1-1- Company profile

10-2-1-2- Revenue structure

10-2-1-3- Gross profit margins

10-2-1-4- Capacity, output and sales

11- Market attractiveness

11-1- Industry rivalry

11-2- Threat of new entrants

11-3- Threat of substitutes

11-4- Bargaining power of buyers

11-5- Bargaining power of suppliers

11-6- Conclusion of Porter analysis

12- PESTEL analysis

12-1- Political factors

12-2- Economic factors

12-3- Social factors

12-4- Technology factors

12-5- Environmental factors

12-6- Legal factors

13- SWOT analysis

13-1- Large-scale companies with favorable conditions

13-1-1- Short-term strategies

13-1-2- Long-term strategies

13-2- Large-scale companies with unfavorable conditions

13-2-1- Short-term strategies

13-2-2- Long-term strategies

13-3- Small enterprises with favorable conditions

13-3-1- Short-term strategies

13-3-2- Long-term strategies

13-4- Small enterprises with unfavorable conditions

13-4-1- Short-term strategies

13-4-2- Long-term strategies

List of Figures

  1. Output and consumption; 2011-2020
  2. Market share of product applications; 2020
  3. Market surplus; 2020-2026
  4. Process flowchart
  5. Market size; 2011-2026
  6. Existing capacity; 2011-2020
  7. Capacity distribution; 2020
  8. Geographic distribution of capacities; 2020
  9. Development of future capacity; 2011-2026
  10. Amount of output; 2011-2026
  11. Operating rates of production plants; 2011-2026
  12. Amount of consumption; 2011-2026
  13. Consumption share of domestic product; 2011-2026
  14. Exports of product; 2011-2020
  15. Imports of product; 2011-2020
  16. Historical trade balance; 2011-2020
  17. Future Market balance; 2020-2026
  18. Market output breakdown by alloy type; 2011-2026
  19. Market consumption breakdown by alloy type; 2011-2026
  20. Market balance breakdown by alloy type; 2011-2026
  21. Market output breakdown by product type; 2011-2026
  22. Market consumption breakdown by product type; 2011-2026
  23. Market balance breakdown by product type; 2011-2026
  24. Market consumption breakdown by application; 2011-2026
  25. Inventories of raw materials and products at producers factories; 2011-2020
  26. Consumers’ inventory of product; 2011-2020
  27. Traders’ inventory; 2011-2020
  28. Production forecast, according to raw materials and sales analysis; 2020-2026
  29. Market surplus; 2020-2026
  30. The share of end-user industries in the consumption; 2011 and 2020
  31. Changes in the end-consumption of extrusion products; 2020 vs 2026
  32. Applications in building construction industry; 2020
  33. Applications in infrastructure construction industry; 2020
  34. Applications in transportation manufacturing industry; 2020
  35. Applications in industrial equipment manufacturing industry; 2020
  36. Applications in durable goods manufacturing industry; 2020
  37. Applications in consumable goods manufacturing industry; 2020
  38. Capacity distribution structure of direct consumers; 2020
  39. Existing capacities of direct consumers in each province; 2020
  40. Suppliers of the export potential destination; 2020
  41. Historical exports to the export potential destination and future potential; 2016-2026
  42. Up-stream domestic supply; 2011-2020
  43. Raw materials domestic supply; 2011-2020
  44. Supply channels of producer plants
  45. Spot price of raw material in the market; 2011-2026
  46. Cash cost structure for production the product; 2020
  47. Production cost curve of the plants; 2020
  48. Gross value added of the industry; 2011-2020
  49. Generated new scrap; 2011-2020
  50. Sales channels
  51. Realized price of the product in the market; 2011-2026
  52. Potential demand of each province; 2020
  53. The main foreign suppliers to the market; 2011-2020
  54. FOB price vs domestic market; 2011-2026
  55. Map of global major importers > 20,000t; 2020
  56. Major foreign customers; 2011-2020
  57. Revenue structure of the producers; FY2020
  58. Sales income and gross profit margin of the producers; FY2011-2020
  59. Output and sales of the producers; FY2011-2020
  60. Revenue structure of the consumers; FY2020
  61. Sales income and gross profit margin of the consumers; FY2011-2020
  62. Output and sales of the consumers; FY2011-2020
  63. SWOT matrix for large-scale companies with favorable conditions
  64. Strategies positioning for large-scale companies with favorable conditions
  65. SWOT matrix for large-scale companies with unfavorable conditions
  66. Strategies positioning for large-scale companies with unfavorable conditions
  67. SWOT matrix for small enterprises with favorable conditions
  68. Strategies positioning for small enterprises with favorable conditions
  69. SWOT matrix for small enterprises with unfavorable conditions
  70. Strategies positioning for small enterprises with unfavorable conditions

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