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Importance of changes in the global copper price on Chile and Peru economy

The growth of the concentrate price in 2021

11% of Chile’s GDP and 10% of Peru’s GDP are related to the extraction of mineral metal; among all these metals, copper is known as the crucial one in these two countries. As a consequence, copper accounts an important metal for the countries’ economies.

In view of the increase in the global copper price in 2021, Chile’s concentrate and cathode experienced an increase in their export price which respectively was 33.9% and 34%, and this increase was about 35% and 32.6% for Peru’s concentrate and cathode.

ata_khaliliImportance of changes in the global copper price on Chile and Peru economy
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Australia and Brazil, two largest suppliers of China’s iron ore

China’s iron ore imports

China is the largest world’s steel producer and only in 2022, it produced over 1bt steel. Despite the fact that the country is one of the biggest iron ore producers, it’s also accounted as the largest iron ore importer in the world due to its high iron ore required to produce steel.

Australia and Brazil are the largest producers and exporters of iron ore in the world which a huge part of their production is being bought by China. The iron ore production volume of Australia was 932mt in 2022 and this volume for Brazil was about 430mt.

ata_khaliliAustralia and Brazil, two largest suppliers of China’s iron ore
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Limited Supply Effect on TC Concentrates

Increasing Revenue of Smelters and Refinery

It’s worth mentioning that during the first quarter of 2021, TC decreased by a 17% average monthly rate and recorded the least amount of the recent decade. With the help of Chinese smelters’ closing down and demands dropping, TC increased, and over the last quarter of 2022, owing to the shortage of concentrate supply without any changes it remained at high levels.

Key mines of Chile and Peru faced production disruptions due to heavy rains and indigenous protests, and this matter caused a drop in production and exacerbating the supply deficit of copper concentrate in Indonesia’s mines last year. Therefore, the drop in concentrate production was one of the crucial reasons for TC’s upward trend all over 2022.

ata_khaliliLimited Supply Effect on TC Concentrates
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Similar per capita consumption trend of refined zinc, lead, and copper

Refined zinc, lead, and copper per capita consumption survey

Generally, the per capita consumption trend of refined zinc, lead, and copper has been increasing in 2002-22. The refined lead and zinc per capita consumption decreased by 1.1% and 5.3% respectively in 2009 due to the 2008 financial crisis beginning.

Refined copper per capita consumption faced a 0.9% drop in 2009. Although, zinc consumption decreased in the USA in view of the financial crisis, the increase in China’s consumption compensated for this drop. Also, the per capita consumption of copper decreased along with the higher growth of population than copper consumption growth. Because of the EU Debt Crisis, lead and zinc per capita consumption decreased, but copper per capita consumption was not affected vastly by it due to the fact that the largest copper producers and consumers are in America and Asia.

ata_khaliliSimilar per capita consumption trend of refined zinc, lead, and copper
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The Long Path of Mergers and Acquisitions in the Global Gold Industry

The Beginning of the Integration of the Fragmented Industry

It seems that it has been started a new generation of mergers and acquisitions activities in the gold industry as the result of the merging of two mining companies, Barrick Gold and Randgold in March 2019. This industry is highly fragmented; in a way that the 10 largest producers’ production shares of the global gold supply is less than 30%.

In other words, the need to maintain production stability has caused integration (merger and acquisition activities) to be a medium-term driver of the gold chain mining sector. Creating one of the largest gold production companies in the world and the construction of the largest gold production mining complex in Africa are the probabilities in this new trend.

ata_khaliliThe Long Path of Mergers and Acquisitions in the Global Gold Industry
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The world molybdenum concentrate market is dominated by South America

The global trades of molybdenum concentrate investigation

Molybdenum concentrate is used as a raw material in various industries including steel and alloying, and it is particularly used in the production of alloys required by the aviation industry, as well as iron casting, including steel sheet, rebar, and steel pipes.

Chile with the help of 31% share in export of molybdenum concentrate in 2021, turned to the largest molybdenum in the whole world which Japan and South Korea are this country’s key export destination. And the largest importer of molybdenum is china with 14% share of the global imports and Chile is its main imported origin.

ata_khaliliThe world molybdenum concentrate market is dominated by South America
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Zero carbon emissions by 2050 is on the agenda of aluminum producers

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

Countries around the world have made an agreement to reduce GHG emissions in order to prevent global warming. In this agreement, the goal is to reduce GHG emissions without threatening food industry, in which achieving zero carbon emissions by 2050O is one of the main plans.

The highest amount of carbon emissions in the aluminum industry is related to electricity, power plants mainly use fossil fuels, which cause significant carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Rio Tinto’s aluminum sector released about 21.9Mt of carbon in 2021, down around 1% compared to the company’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2018. Alcoa’s carbon emission decreased by 23.9% in 2021 compared to 2015. Norsk Hydro recorded about 11.3Mt of carbon emissions in 2018.

ata_khaliliZero carbon emissions by 2050 is on the agenda of aluminum producers
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The competition of the biggest world’s wire rod producers; Japan defeated Korea

The world’s wire rod market

During the last 10 years, China has promoted its position in the world’s wire rod market and it could increase its own share to 48%. Even so, the high speed of economic growth made more development of China’s share in the global wire rod demands.

China, India, Japan, and South Korea are 4 countries that are considered to be the most important semi-fabricated copper producers that during the last 10 years, on average, have produced near to 55% of the world’s wire rod. Meanwhile, China and India’s shares increased, while the other 2 countries lost their share in this market.

ata_khaliliThe competition of the biggest world’s wire rod producers; Japan defeated Korea
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China is the world leader in trade and production of cold rolled steel coil

China's cold rolled steel coil market

As the largest steel producer in the world, China plays the most important role in the global steel products market. China’s CRC production has increased from about 25.620.000 tonnes in 2012 to 45.110.000 tonnes in 2021.

China’s cold rolled steel coil exports have increased from 4.210.000 tonnes in 2012 to about 8.150.000 tonnes in 2021. China’s average import of CRC during these years was equal to 3.200.000 tonnes. China’s CRC imports decreased from 3.950.000 tonnes in 2012 to 2.880.000 tonnes in 2021. China’s CRC market is growing due to the growth of industries in this country.

ata_khaliliChina is the world leader in trade and production of cold rolled steel coil
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The downward trend of carbon emissions from primary aluminum from 2012 to 2021

A high share of coal in energy consumption

Carbon emissions per tonne of primary aluminum production have been decreasing from 2012 to 2021. After Paris Agreement in 2015, carbon emissions decreased by about 6.4% compared to last year. One of the reasons of this deduction in aluminum sector is the use of modern technology.

The largest share of carbon emission in the primary aluminum production process is allocated to electricity. The share of electricity in this process was about 64.5% in 2021. And the reason for this large share is used of sources like coal which emits significantly greenhouse gases.

ata_khaliliThe downward trend of carbon emissions from primary aluminum from 2012 to 2021
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