Aluminum

Copper’s Dominance Over Aluminum Endures

Over the period under review, upstream Copper clearly outperformed upstream Aluminum in global trade. With a much larger average share and a consistently higher position, the Upstream Copper Industry maintained a stronger and more effective role than its Aluminum counterpart.

From 2019 to 2024, the total global trade value of Copper grew faster and more strongly than that of Aluminum. Copper increased from about USD 212 million to nearly USD 348 million, supported by a high compound annual growth rate of 10.4%, while Aluminum rose from roughly USD 201 million to around USD 274 million with a lower growth rate of 6.4%. Copper reached its lowest value at the start of the period and its highest at the end, whereas Aluminum hit its minimum in 2020 and peaked earlier, in 2022. Over time, Copper showed moderate upward movements with normal volatility before stabilizing with lower fluctuations, while Aluminum experienced milder changes with limited volatility. By 2024, Copper again outperformed Aluminum in annual growth. Overall, both metals moved closely together, showing a very strong positive correlation throughout the period.

khorasaniCopper’s Dominance Over Aluminum Endures
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Copper Wirerod Maintains a Higher Standing in Global Trade

Overall, Copper Wirerod consistently played a stronger and more influential role in global trade than Aluminum Wirerod, both in terms of positioning and share within their respective value chains.

Between 2019 and 2024, the total global trade values of Copper and Aluminum both increased, although Copper grew faster and more strongly. Copper’s trade value rose from about USD 212 million to nearly USD 348 million, supported by a higher CAGR of 10.4%, while Aluminum increased from around USD 203 million to approximately USD 276 million with a CAGR of 6.4%. Copper reached both its lowest and highest levels at the beginning and end of the period, respectively, whereas Aluminum experienced its minimum in 2020 and peaked earlier, in 2022. Trend analysis shows that Copper followed mostly upward movements with moderate changes, while Aluminum displayed milder shifts with lower volatility. Overall, Copper showed conventional volatility, Aluminum remained more stable, and both markets moved closely together, reflecting a very good and positive correlation throughout the period.

khorasaniCopper Wirerod Maintains a Higher Standing in Global Trade
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Zero carbon emissions by 2050 is on the agenda of aluminum producers

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

Countries around the world have made an agreement to reduce GHG emissions in order to prevent global warming. In this agreement, the goal is to reduce GHG emissions without threatening food industry, in which achieving zero carbon emissions by 2050O is one of the main plans.

The highest amount of carbon emissions in the aluminum industry is related to electricity, power plants mainly use fossil fuels, which cause significant carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Rio Tinto’s aluminum sector released about 21.9Mt of carbon in 2021, down around 1% compared to the company’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2018. Alcoa’s carbon emission decreased by 23.9% in 2021 compared to 2015. Norsk Hydro recorded about 11.3Mt of carbon emissions in 2018.

ata_khaliliZero carbon emissions by 2050 is on the agenda of aluminum producers
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The downward trend of carbon emissions from primary aluminum from 2012 to 2021

A high share of coal in energy consumption

Carbon emissions per tonne of primary aluminum production have been decreasing from 2012 to 2021. After Paris Agreement in 2015, carbon emissions decreased by about 6.4% compared to last year. One of the reasons of this deduction in aluminum sector is the use of modern technology.

The largest share of carbon emission in the primary aluminum production process is allocated to electricity. The share of electricity in this process was about 64.5% in 2021. And the reason for this large share is used of sources like coal which emits significantly greenhouse gases.

ata_khaliliThe downward trend of carbon emissions from primary aluminum from 2012 to 2021
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The impression of Russia and Ukraine’s war on the alumina trade

The global alumina trade

Alumina is a result of bauxite refining, and it’s consumed as the raw material for aluminum production. Alumina’s transportation cost is lower than bauxite transportation and has more economic efficiency, leading to the aluminum producer countries providing their requirement as the alumina and because of that this material is traded with a high volume in the world.

The presence of the biggest bauxite deposits in Brazil and Australia turned these two countries into the largest alumina exporters in the world. However, the import of alumina isn’t exclusive and many countries are its importer in the world, but the largest exporter destinations for it are Russia, Canada, and China. This coming year won’t be stunning for the global alumina trade because of the expensive energy in Europe due to the war between Ukraine and Russia, consequently the reduction in alumina production in the world and stopping the export of this material from Ukraine to Russia lead to the drop in its trade and makes an unclear future for this trade.

ata_khaliliThe impression of Russia and Ukraine’s war on the alumina trade
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The prominent role of inorganic fluorine compounds and cryolite in the aluminum industry

Global cryolite trade

The export of synthesis cryolite in 2021, is estimated about 110,000 tonnes which Canada with having 21% of market’s share, is known as the biggest cryolite exporter in the world and the USA has got 99% of Canada’s export share so it’s the largest destination for it.

The global import level of synthesis cryolite in 2021 had been about 106,000 tonnes that the share of the USA of this import is about 29% and this turned it into the largest importer and Canada and Mexico is the biggest supplier for these countries.

ata_khaliliThe prominent role of inorganic fluorine compounds and cryolite in the aluminum industry
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Global alumina production fueled the war between Ukraine and Russia

Alumina production in different regions

The war between Ukraine and Russia and the subsequent lack of natural gas supply in Europe caused a sharp growth in the price of energy carriers, thus, led to a global drop in alumina production, especially in Europe and South America. Under these circumstance, the market is expected to face risks in near future.

China is the largest producer and consumer of alumina in the world, and the smallest changes in the country will have a significant impact on the production and supply of global alumina. On this basis, there is a great reduction in global alumina production in February, because of Chinese New Year, which decreased around 1Mt in 2021.

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The US lost part of its share in the aluminum scrap trade

The relationship between aluminum prices and scrap trade

Aluminum scrap trade had an upward trend from 2011 to 2020, up by 0.1% every year. The trade volume of scrap is directly related to the aluminum price in the LME. With the growth of aluminum prices, downstream companies are more likely to use secondary ingots produced from scrap.

When the price of aluminum ingots is low, the downstream companies are able to purchase primary ingots, and the scrap trade is reduced in this regard. The largest exports volume of aluminum scrap was from the US, which had a 16.9% share of the market. The scrap price is provided by applying a discount to the aluminum ingot. The biggest discount is related to casting scraps. Due to the export of casting scrap, France exports its aluminum scrap with the biggest discount.

ata_khaliliThe US lost part of its share in the aluminum scrap trade
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